Ontario Mortgage Rates: July 2021

July 2021 -- Canadian Mortgage & Housing Market Snapshot

1) Bank of Canada rate decisions - Date: July 14, 2021 - Decision: No change - Overnight rate: 0.25% - Rationale: The Bank said the recovery was progressing, supported by reopening and vaccines, but the pandemic still posed uncertainty and the economy continued to require extraordinary support. It held the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of 0.25% and maintained QE at the reduced pace established earlier in 2021. - Important context: This was another hold decision, reinforcing that rates would stay low even as housing conditions remained tight.

2) Mortgage rate snapshot -- July 2021 The broad July 2021 mortgage-rate picture was:

• Prime rate: about 2.45%
• Variable rates:
• generally still in the low-2% range
• remained attractive because the BoC had not moved
• 5-year fixed:
• generally in the low-2% to mid-2% range
• still low historically, though well off the absolute pandemic trough
• Practical takeaway:
• July 2021 remained a low-rate borrowing environment
• fixed and variable rates both continued to support housing demand, even as sales volumes cooled from earlier peaks

Caveat: I did not find a single authoritative national source giving one exact Canada-wide “average 5-year fixed” and “average variable” for July 2021 only, so these remain approximate market ranges.

Canada (national) Month-specific reporting for July 2021 showed a continuing cooldown from the spring frenzy: - National home sales: down 3.5% month-over-month from June - National average sale price: about $662,000 - up 15.6% year-over-year - Months of inventory: around 2.7 months - Interpretation: - sales were easing from the extraordinary highs reached earlier in the year - but market conditions were still historically tight and supportive of price growth

GTA / Ontario proxy For TRREB / GTA July 2021: - Sales: 9,390 - Year-over-year sales change: -14.9% - compared with the very strong July 2020 base - Average selling price: $1,062,256 - up 12.6% year-over-year - New listings: 15,054 - down 16.7% year-over-year - Interpretation: - GTA sales had cooled from the prior year’s boom pace - but prices remained above $1.06 million - lower listings continued to support a relatively tight market

Ontario-wide I did not find a clean primary Ontario-wide July 2021 housing dataset in this run that I’m comfortable quoting directly. The strongest Ontario-specific evidence here remains TRREB / GTA.

4) Regulatory / policy news -- July 2021 I did not verify a major new OSFI, FSRA, or federal mortgage-policy shock landing specifically in July 2021.

Best month-specific characterization - July 2021 was mainly a continuation month - The key policy backdrop remained: - BoC at 0.25% - the June 1 uninsured stress-test floor already in effect - continued monitoring of affordability and market overheating - No fresh July-only mortgage-rule change clearly stood out in this pass ## 5) Private / alternative lending -- July 2021 I did not find a clean Ontario-only private-lending data release for July 2021 in this run.

Best month-specific characterization - alternative and private lenders remained relevant for: - borrowers squeezed by the stress test - self-employed borrowers - borrowers unable to qualify through prime channels - however, I do not have a clean July-only Ontario metric to quantify the trend directly - The safest conclusion is: - alternative lending remained important at the margin - but the dominant July story was market cooling from earlier extremes, not a private-lending shock

Major headlines - July 14: BoC holds at 0.25% - Housing market cools further from spring peak - national sales declined again month-over-month - GTA sales were below the year-ago level - Prices remain elevated - national average around $662,000 - GTA average above $1.06 million - Listings remain restrained - helping keep prices supported despite lower sales activity

Fraud / court / lender events - I did not find a single clearly dominant mortgage fraud case, lender collapse, or court ruling that I could confidently verify as a defining July 2021 mortgage headline in this run

Bottom line for July 2021 - BoC: held at 0.25% on July 14 - Mortgage rates: still low; variable rates remained in the low-2% range, fixed rates in the low/mid-2% range - Housing market: cooling from peak, but still historically strong - Canada: average price about $662,000 - GTA: 9,390 sales, average price $1,062,256 - Policy: no major new July-only mortgage-policy shock verified - Alternative lending: still relevant at the margin, but not the defining story of the month

Caveats - You asked for July 2021 only, so I kept this month-specific. - I could verify the BoC July 14 hold strongly from the primary source. - I relied on month-specific market reporting and search-result evidence for national and GTA figures; I did not directly extract a clean primary Ontario-wide dataset in this run. - I also did not** find a single authoritative national “average 5-year fixed / average variable” series for July 2021 only, so the mortgage-rate section remains an approximate market snapshot rather than a precise official average.