Ontario Mortgage Rates: June 2021

June 2021 -- Canadian Mortgage & Housing Market Snapshot

1) Bank of Canada rate decisions - Date: June 9, 2021 - Decision: No change - Overnight rate: 0.25% - Rationale: The Bank said the recovery was progressing and the outlook had improved, but the economy still required extraordinary monetary support. It maintained the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of 0.25% and continued with quantitative easing at the reduced pace announced in April. - Important context: June 2021 was another hold month, reinforcing that policy would stay accommodative for a long time even as housing activity remained elevated.

2) Mortgage rate snapshot -- June 2021 The broad June 2021 mortgage-rate picture was:

• Prime rate: about 2.45%
• Variable rates:
• generally in the low-2% range
• still strongly supported by the unchanged BoC rate
• 5-year fixed:
• generally in the low-2% to mid-2% range
• still low historically, but above the rock-bottom levels seen in late 2020 / early 2021
• Practical takeaway:
• June 2021 remained a very cheap borrowing environment
• fixed rates had already repriced upward from the trough, while variable pricing stayed very low

Caveat: I did not find a single authoritative national source giving an exact Canada-wide “average 5-year fixed” and “average variable” for June 2021 only, so these remain approximate market ranges.

Canada (national) Month-specific reporting for June 2021 showed continued cooling from the spring frenzy: - National home sales: down 8.4% month-over-month from May - Sales were also below the March peak, continuing the normalization trend - National average sale price: about $665,850 - up 25.9% year-over-year - Months of inventory: about 2.4 months - Interpretation: - the market was cooling from extreme highs - but conditions remained historically tight and prices were still rising strongly year-over-year

GTA / Ontario proxy For TRREB / GTA June 2021: - Sales: 11,106 - Year-over-year sales change: +28.5% - Average selling price: $1,089,536 - up 17.0% year-over-year - New listings: 17,964 - up 8.0% year-over-year - Interpretation: - GTA sales remained strong - prices stayed above $1.08 million - market conditions were still tight, even as activity eased from the peak

Ontario-wide I did not find a clean primary Ontario-wide June 2021 housing dataset in this run that I’m comfortable quoting directly. The strongest Ontario-specific evidence here remains TRREB / GTA.

OSFI mortgage stress test change takes effect - The revised minimum qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages took effect on June 1, 2021 - The floor became the greater of: - 5.25% - or contract rate + 2% - Although announced in May, the effective date was June 1 - This is the key mortgage-policy item for June 2021 ### Why it mattered - It reduced buying power for some borrowers - It tightened qualification conditions - It likely pushed some marginal borrowers toward: - alternative lenders - co-borrowers - lower price points - delayed purchasing decisions

FSRA / federal - I did not verify a major new FSRA or federal mortgage-policy shock landing specifically in June 2021 beyond the stress-test change taking effect

5) Private / alternative lending -- June 2021 I did not find a clean Ontario-only private-lending data release for June 2021 in this run.

Best month-specific characterization - the new stress-test floor that took effect on June 1 likely increased the relevance of alternative and private lending for borrowers squeezed out of prime qualification - however, I do not have a clean June-only Ontario metric to quantify that effect directly - The safest conclusion is: - alternative channels likely benefited at the margin - but the dominant market story remained mainstream housing cooling from extreme highs

Major headlines - June 9: BoC holds at 0.25% - June 1: OSFI stress-test floor takes effect - Housing market cools from spring peak - national sales down month-over-month again - but prices remain very high - GTA market still extremely expensive - average price above $1.089 million

What defined June 2021 The defining themes were: - low rates still in place - stress-test tightening now active - demand cooling from peak frenzy - prices staying elevated - inventory still tight by historical standards

Fraud / court / lender events - I did not find a single clearly dominant mortgage fraud case, lender collapse, or court ruling that I could confidently verify as a defining June 2021 mortgage headline in this run

---

Bottom line for June 2021 - BoC: held at 0.25% on June 9 - Mortgage rates: still very low; variable rates remained in the low-2% range, fixed rates stayed low but above the trough - Housing market: cooling from peak, but still very strong - Canada: average price about $665,850 - GTA: 11,106 sales, average price $1,089,536 - Policy: key June development was the OSFI stress-test floor taking effect on June 1 - Alternative lending: likely became more relevant at the margin, but no clean June-only Ontario figure verified

Sources - Bank of Canada -- June 9, 2021 decision - OSFI revised qualifying rate announcement / implementation - CREA June 2021 release title / month-specific market reporting - TRREB market-watch references / June 2021 figures surfaced in search results - Secondary coverage summarizing June 2021 GTA data: - - - Rate references - - -

Caveats - You asked for June 2021 only, so I kept this month-specific. - I could verify the BoC June 9 hold and the June 1 stress-test implementation strongly. - I relied on month-specific market reporting and search-result evidence for national and GTA figures; I did not directly extract a clean primary Ontario-wide dataset in this run. - I also did not find a single authoritative national “average 5-year fixed / average variable” series for June 2021 only, so the mortgage-rate section remains an approximate market snapshot rather than a precise official average.