December 2023 -- Canadian Mortgage & Housing Market Snapshot
1) Bank of Canada rate decisions - Date: December 6, 2023 - Decision: No change - Overnight rate: 5.00% - Rationale: The Bank said the economy was no longer in excess demand, inflation was easing but still too high, and restrictive policy was working. It held the overnight rate at 5.00% and continued to emphasize that it was prepared to raise rates further if needed, while also acknowledging that economic growth had stalled. - Important context: December 2023 reinforced the “higher for longer, but likely near the top” message.
2) Mortgage rate snapshot -- December 2023 The broad December 2023 mortgage-rate picture was:
- Prime rate: about 7.20%
- Variable rates:
- generally in the mid-6% to low-7% range
- still highly restrictive for mortgage borrowers
- 5-year fixed:
- generally in the mid-5% to high-5% range
- fixed rates remained high, though bond-market moves had started to raise hopes of eventual easing in 2024
- Practical takeaway:
- December 2023 was still a high-rate mortgage environment
- but market sentiment was beginning to shift from “how high will rates go?” toward “when will rates come down?”
Caveat: I did not find a single authoritative national source giving an exact Canada-wide “average 5-year fixed” and “average variable” for December 2023 only, so these remain approximate market ranges.
3) Housing market data -- December 2023
Canada (national) Month-specific reporting for December 2023 showed: - National home sales: down 3.7% month-over-month from November - National average sale price: about $657,145 - up about 5.1% year-over-year - Months of inventory: around 3.8 months - Interpretation: - national activity softened again after the November rebound - prices were modestly above year-ago levels - the market remained sluggish but more stable than in late 2022
GTA / Ontario proxy For TRREB / GTA December 2023: - Sales: 3,444 - Year-over-year sales change: +11.5% - Average selling price: $1,084,692 - up 3.2% year-over-year - New listings: 4,681 - up 17.0% year-over-year - Interpretation: - GTA activity remained low in absolute terms, but improved modestly from the prior year - prices were slightly higher year-over-year - listings were also higher, suggesting somewhat more balanced conditions than during the peak boom
Ontario-wide I did not find a clean primary Ontario-wide December 2023 housing dataset in this run that I’m comfortable quoting directly. The strongest Ontario-specific evidence here remains TRREB / GTA.
4) Regulatory / policy news -- December 2023 The main policy story in December 2023 was the continued BoC hold.
Major policy development - December 6, 2023: BoC holds at 5.00% - This mattered because: - rates stayed at cycle highs - the mortgage market remained under pressure - but expectations increasingly shifted toward eventual cuts in 2024 - I did not verify a separate major OSFI, FSRA, or federal mortgage-rule shock landing specifically in December 2023 ## 5) Private / alternative lending -- December 2023 I did not find a clean Ontario-only private-lending data release for December 2023 in this run.
Best month-specific characterization - private / alternative lending likely remained relevant for: - borrowers facing renewal and payment stress - borrowers unable to qualify conventionally at high rates - bridge / restructuring needs - But I do not have a clean December-only Ontario metric to quote directly - The main market story remained: - subdued but stabilizing housing activity under high rates
6) Notable events -- December 2023
Major headlines - December 6: BoC holds at 5.00% - National housing market remains sluggish but stable - GTA shows modest year-over-year improvement - both sales and prices slightly higher than December 2022 - Listings remain higher than the prior year - a sign the market was less supply-starved than during the peak boom
What defined December 2023 The defining themes were: - policy rates holding at cycle highs - softer but more stable market conditions - modest year-over-year price gains - growing belief that the next major rate move would eventually be downward
Fraud / court / lender events - I did not find a single clearly dominant mortgage fraud case, lender collapse, or court ruling that I could confidently verify as a defining December 2023 mortgage headline in this run
--- ## Bottom line for December 2023 - BoC: held at 5.00% on December 6 - Mortgage rates: remained very high, but sentiment increasingly shifted toward eventual easing - Housing market: sluggish but more stable than a year earlier - Canada: average price about $657,145 - GTA: 3,444 sales, average price $1,084,692 - Policy: the defining December event was the continued BoC hold at 5.00% - Alternative lending: likely still relevant at the margin, but no clean December-only Ontario figure verified