Ontario Mortgage Rates: July 2023

July 2023 -- Canadian Mortgage & Housing Market Snapshot

1) Bank of Canada rate decisions - Date: July 12, 2023 - Decision: Rate hike - Overnight rate: 4.75% → 5.00% - Change: +25 basis points - Rationale: The Bank said inflation was still too high and underlying price pressures were proving persistent. It judged that demand in the economy continued to exceed supply and that another increase was needed to restore price stability. - Important context: July 2023 took the policy rate to 5.00%, marking one of the highest levels of the cycle and intensifying mortgage pressure for households.

2) Mortgage rate snapshot -- July 2023 The broad July 2023 mortgage-rate picture was:

• Prime rate: moved up to about 7.20% after the July 12 hike
• Variable rates:
• generally moved into the mid-6% to low-7% range
• depending on lender discounts and borrower profile
• 5-year fixed:
• generally in the high-5% to low-6% range
• fixed rates remained elevated and sensitive to bond-market volatility
• Practical takeaway:
• July 2023 was a very restrictive-rate environment
• both variable and fixed borrowing costs were high, and affordability remained under heavy pressure

Caveat: I did not find a single authoritative national source giving an exact Canada-wide “average 5-year fixed” and “average variable” for July 2023 only, so these remain approximate market ranges.

Canada (national) Month-specific reporting for July 2023 showed: - National home sales: down 0.7% month-over-month from June - National average sale price: about $668,754 - up about 6.3% year-over-year - Months of inventory: around 3.4 months - Interpretation: - activity slipped slightly - prices remained elevated versus the year prior - limited inventory continued to support the market despite high rates

GTA / Ontario proxy For TRREB / GTA July 2023: - Sales: 5,250 - Year-over-year sales change: +7.8% - Average selling price: $1,118,374 - up 4.2% year-over-year - New listings: 15,371 - up 10.5% year-over-year - Interpretation: - GTA sales were modestly above the prior year’s weak level - average prices remained above $1.11 million - listings were rising, but not enough to create a loose market

Ontario-wide I did not find a clean primary Ontario-wide July 2023 housing dataset in this run that I’m comfortable quoting directly. The strongest Ontario-specific evidence here remains TRREB / GTA.

Major policy development - July 12, 2023: BoC raises overnight rate by 25 bps to 5.00% - This had direct mortgage-market relevance because: - variable-rate borrowers faced further payment increases - qualification remained very difficult - the housing market had to absorb another increase after June’s hike ### OSFI / FSRA / federal - I did not verify a separate major OSFI, FSRA, or federal mortgage-rule shock landing specifically in July 2023 that rivaled the BoC hike - So the dominant July policy story was: - the BoC taking rates to 5.00%

5) Private / alternative lending -- July 2023 I did not find a clean Ontario-only private-lending data release for July 2023 in this run.

Best month-specific characterization - high rates, payment stress, and requalification pressure likely continued to support demand for: - private lenders - alternative mortgage channels - restructuring and bridge solutions - But I do not have a clean July-only Ontario metric to quote directly - The main market story remained: - the resilience of sales/prices relative to how restrictive rates had become ## 6) Notable events -- July 2023

Major headlines - July 12: BoC hikes to 5.00% - National market holds up better than expected - sales dip only slightly month-over-month - GTA prices remain above $1.11 million - Listings rise, but supply is still not abundant - helping keep prices supported

What defined July 2023 The defining themes were: - peak-rate territory - still-high home prices - constrained supply - continued pressure on borrowers - a market that was softer than the boom years but still more resilient than many expected ### Fraud / court / lender events - I did not find a single clearly dominant mortgage fraud case, lender collapse, or court ruling that I could confidently verify as a defining July 2023 mortgage headline in this run

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Bottom line for July 2023 - BoC: hiked from 4.75% to 5.00% on July 12 - Mortgage rates: remained very high; variable rates moved into the mid/high-6% to low-7% range and fixeds into the high-5% / low-6% range - Housing market: softened only modestly - Canada: average price about $668,754 - GTA: 5,250 sales, average price $1,118,374 - Policy: the defining July event was the BoC hike to 5.00% - Alternative lending: likely still relevant at the margin, but no clean July-only Ontario figure verified

Sources - Bank of Canada -- July 12, 2023 decision - CREA July 2023 release title / month-specific market reporting - TRREB market-watch references / July 2023 figures surfaced in search results - Secondary coverage summarizing July 2023 GTA data: - - - Rate references - - -

Caveats - You asked for July 2023 only, so I kept this month-specific. - I could verify the BoC July 12 hike strongly from the primary source. - I relied on month-specific market reporting and search-result evidence for national and GTA figures; I did not directly extract a clean primary Ontario-wide dataset in this run. - I also did not find a single authoritative national “average 5-year fixed / average variable” series for July 2023 only, so the mortgage-rate section remains an approximate market snapshot rather than a precise official average.