Ontario Mortgage Rates: January 2023

January 2023 -- Canadian Mortgage & Housing Market Snapshot

1) Bank of Canada rate decisions - Date: January 25, 2023 - Decision: Rate hike - Overnight rate: 4.25% → 4.50% - Change: +25 basis points - Rationale: The Bank said inflation was still too high and the labour market remained tight, so another increase was needed. At the same time, it signaled that it expected to hold the policy rate at 4.50% while assessing the impact of prior hikes -- effectively announcing a conditional pause. - Important context: January 2023 was a major policy month because it combined: - one more hike - with the BoC’s first clear signal that it might pause further tightening

2) Mortgage rate snapshot -- January 2023 The broad January 2023 mortgage-rate picture was: - Prime rate: moved up to about 6.70% after the January 25 hike - Variable rates: - generally in the high-5% to mid-6% range - depending on lender discounts and borrower profile - 5-year fixed: - generally in the mid-4% to mid-5% range - fixed rates had eased somewhat from the late-2022 highs in some channels, but remained very elevated versus 2020–2021 - Practical takeaway: - January 2023 was still a high-rate environment - variable rates were especially painful - fixed rates remained high, though no longer necessarily climbing as fast as they had in 2022

Caveat: I did not find a single authoritative national source giving one exact Canada-wide “average 5-year fixed” and “average variable” for January 2023 only, so these remain approximate market ranges.

3) Housing market data -- January 2023

Canada (national) Month-specific reporting for January 2023 showed: - National home sales: up 1.3% month-over-month from December 2022 - National average sale price: about $612,204 - down about 18.3% year-over-year - Months of inventory: around 4.3 months - Interpretation: - the market was still weak compared with the boom period - sales stabilized somewhat month-over-month - prices remained well below year-ago levels

GTA / Ontario proxy For TRREB / GTA January 2023: - Sales: 3,100 - Year-over-year sales change: -45.0% - Average selling price: $1,038,668 - down 16.4% year-over-year - New listings: 4,375 - down 38.2% year-over-year - Interpretation: - GTA sales remained very weak - average prices were still above $1.0 million, but far below the prior year’s January level - the market remained in correction mode, though with signs of stabilization rather than freefall

Ontario-wide I did not find a clean primary Ontario-wide January 2023 housing dataset in this run that I’m comfortable quoting directly. The strongest Ontario-specific evidence here remains TRREB / GTA.

4) Regulatory / policy news -- January 2023 The biggest policy development in January 2023 was clearly monetary.

Major policy development - January 25, 2023: BoC raises the overnight rate to 4.50% - Just as important, the Bank signals a likely pause - This was highly relevant to mortgages because: - variable-rate costs rose again - but the market also began to price in the idea that peak rates might be close

OSFI / FSRA / federal - I did not verify a separate major OSFI, FSRA, or federal mortgage-rule shock landing specifically in January 2023 that rivaled the BoC decision - So the dominant January policy story was: - the hike + conditional pause signal

5) Private / alternative lending -- January 2023 I did not find a clean Ontario-only private-lending data release for January 2023 in this run.

Best month-specific characterization - the combination of: - high rates - weak resale volumes - refinance stress - requalification challenges likely continued to support demand for: - private lenders - alternative mortgage channels - short-term rescue / bridge financing - But I do not have a clean January-only Ontario metric to quote directly

Major headlines - January 25: BoC hikes 25 bps and signals a likely pause - National home prices remain sharply below year-ago levels - GTA prices remain lower year-over-year - average still above $1.03 million, but down materially from January 2022 - Sales remain weak - both nationally and in the GTA

Fraud / court / lender events - I did not find a single clearly dominant mortgage fraud case, lender collapse, or court ruling that I could confidently verify as a defining January 2023 mortgage headline in this run

Bottom line for January 2023 - BoC: hiked from 4.25% to 4.50% on January 25, then signaled a likely pause - Mortgage rates: remained high; variable rates were in the high-5% / mid-6% range and fixeds roughly in the mid-4% / mid-5% range - Housing market: still in correction mode, though stabilizing somewhat - Canada: average price about $612,204 - GTA: 3,100 sales, average price $1,038,668 - Policy: the defining January event was the BoC hike + pause signal - Alternative lending: likely still relevant at the margin, but no clean January-only Ontario figure verified

Caveats - You asked for January 2023 only, so I kept this month-specific. - I could verify the BoC January 25 hike + pause signal strongly from the primary source. - I relied on month-specific market reporting and search-result evidence for national and GTA figures; I did not directly extract a clean primary Ontario-wide dataset in this run. - I also did not** find a single authoritative national “average 5-year fixed / average variable” series for January 2023 only, so the mortgage-rate section remains an approximate market snapshot rather than a precise official average.