Ontario Mortgage Rates: October 2022

October 2022 -- Canadian Mortgage & Housing Market Snapshot

1) Bank of Canada rate decisions - Date: October 26, 2022 - Decision: Rate hike - Overnight rate: 3.25% → 3.75% - Change: +50 basis points - Rationale: The Bank said inflation remained high and broad-based, demand continued to exceed supply, and rates still needed to rise further. At the same time, the move was smaller than the previous 75 bp and 100 bp increases, signaling that the Bank was still tightening but with more attention to cumulative effects. - Important context: October 2022 was another tightening month, but the market saw the smaller step size as a sign that the pace might eventually moderate.

2) Mortgage rate snapshot -- October 2022 The broad October 2022 mortgage-rate picture was:

• Prime rate: moved up to about 5.95% after the October 26 hike
• Variable rates:
• generally moved into the mid-5% to low-6% range
• depending on lender discounts and borrower profile
• 5-year fixed:
• generally in the high-4% to mid-5% range
• still elevated, though exact lender pricing varied with bond-market volatility
• Practical takeaway:
• October 2022 remained a very challenging mortgage-rate environment compared with the prior two years
• variable-rate stress was particularly acute

Caveat: I did not find a single authoritative national source giving an exact Canada-wide “average 5-year fixed” and “average variable” for October 2022 only, so these remain approximate market ranges.

Canada (national) Month-specific reporting for October 2022 showed: - National home sales: down 1.9% month-over-month from September - National average sale price: about $644,643 - down about 10.1% year-over-year - Months of inventory: around 3.7 months - Interpretation: - national activity remained weak - average prices were now clearly below year-ago levels - the market was continuing to adjust downward under tighter financial conditions

GTA / Ontario proxy For TRREB / GTA October 2022: - Sales: 4,961 - Year-over-year sales change: -49.1% - Average selling price: $1,089,428 - down 5.7% year-over-year - New listings: 11,489 - down 11.6% year-over-year - Interpretation: - GTA sales remained very weak compared with the prior year - average prices were now below October 2021 levels - the market was clearly in a correction phase

Ontario-wide I did not find a clean primary Ontario-wide October 2022 housing dataset in this run that I’m comfortable quoting directly. The strongest Ontario-specific evidence here remains TRREB / GTA.

Major policy development - October 26, 2022: BoC raises overnight rate by 50 bps to 3.75% - This had major mortgage-market consequences: - higher variable-rate payments - greater trigger-rate pressure - weaker qualification and affordability - more pressure on housing demand ### OSFI / FSRA / federal - I did not verify a separate major OSFI, FSRA, or federal mortgage-rule shock landing specifically in October 2022 that rivaled the BoC hike - So the dominant October policy story was: - continued rate tightening

5) Private/Alternative lending -- October 2022 I did not find a clean Ontario-only private-lending data release for October 2022 in this run.

Best month-specific characterization - the combination of: - higher mortgage rates - lower resale activity - tighter qualification likely increased use of: - private lenders - alternative mortgage channels - restructuring / rescue financing - But I do not have a clean October-only Ontario metric to quote directly - The main market story remained: - broad housing correction under higher rates

6) Notable events -- October 2022

Major headlines - October 26: BoC hikes 50 bps - National prices remain below year-ago levels - GTA prices also negative year-over-year - confirming the correction was well underway - Sales remain very weak - both nationally and in the GTA

What defined October 2022 The defining themes were: - continued aggressive tightening - weak sales - negative year-over-year price comparisons - rising stress for variable-rate borrowers - a broad market correction rather than just a slowdown

Fraud / court / lender events - I did not find a single clearly dominant mortgage fraud case, lender collapse, or court ruling that I could confidently verify as a defining October 2022 mortgage headline in this run

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Bottom line for October 2022 - BoC: hiked from 3.25% to 3.75% on October 26 - Mortgage rates: remained high; variable rates were in the mid-5% / low-6% zone and fixeds in the high-4% / mid-5% range - Housing market: continued correcting - Canada: average price about $644,643 - GTA: 4,961 sales, average price $1,089,428 - Policy: the defining October event was the 50 bp BoC hike - Alternative lending: likely more relevant at the margin, but no clean October-only Ontario figure verified

Sources - Bank of Canada -- October 26, 2022 decision - CREA October 2022 release title / month-specific market reporting - TRREB market-watch references / October 2022 figures surfaced in search results - Secondary coverage summarizing October 2022 GTA data: - - - Rate references - - - ## Caveats - You asked for October 2022 only, so I kept this month-specific. - I could verify the BoC October 26 hike strongly from the primary source. - I relied on month-specific market reporting and search-result evidence for national and GTA figures; I did not directly extract a clean primary Ontario-wide dataset in this run. - I also did not find a single authoritative national “average 5-year fixed / average variable” series for October 2022 only, so the mortgage-rate section remains an approximate market snapshot rather than a precise official average.