Ontario Mortgage Rates: July 2022

July 2022 -- Canadian Mortgage & Housing Market Snapshot

1) Bank of Canada rate decisions - Date: July 13, 2022 - Decision: Rate hike - Overnight rate: 1.50% → 2.50% - Change: +100 basis points - Rationale: The Bank said inflation was much higher and more persistent than expected and that front-loading the path to higher interest rates was necessary to restore price stability. This was an unusually large move and one of the defining monetary-policy events of 2022. - Important context: July 2022 was the month the BoC delivered a full 1.00% hike, signaling a very aggressive tightening stance.

2) Mortgage rate snapshot -- July 2022 The broad July 2022 mortgage-rate picture was:

• Prime rate: moved up to about 4.70% after the July 13 hike
• Variable rates:
• generally moved into the mid-4% range
• depending on lender discounts and borrower profile
• 5-year fixed:
• generally in the high-4% to mid-5% range
• fixed rates had repriced materially upward with bond yields and tightening expectations
• Practical takeaway:
• July 2022 marked a major financing shock compared with early 2022
• both fixed and variable borrowers were facing much higher rates than just months earlier

Caveat: I did not find a single authoritative national source giving one exact Canada-wide “average 5-year fixed” and “average variable” for July 2022 only, so these remain approximate market ranges.

Canada (national) Month-specific reporting for July 2022 showed continued broad cooling: - National home sales: down 5.3% month-over-month from June - National average sale price: about $629,971 - down about 5% year-over-year - Months of inventory: around 3.3 months - Interpretation: - the housing market was cooling quickly - prices were now declining year-over-year nationally - inventory was rebuilding from historically tight levels

GTA / Ontario proxy For TRREB / GTA July 2022: - Sales: 4,912 - Year-over-year sales change: -47.4% - Average selling price: $1,074,754 - up 1.2% year-over-year - New listings: 11,760 - down 4.3% year-over-year - Interpretation: - GTA sales were down very sharply - average prices were still above $1.07 million, but price momentum had slowed dramatically - the market was clearly transitioning away from the 2021/early-2022 boom

Ontario-wide I did not find a clean primary Ontario-wide July 2022 housing dataset in this run that I’m comfortable quoting directly. The strongest Ontario-specific evidence here remains TRREB / GTA.

Major policy development - July 13, 2022: BoC raises overnight rate by 100 bps to 2.50% - This had major mortgage-market significance because: - variable-rate borrowing costs jumped - prime-based payments rose - housing demand weakened further - expectations for additional tightening strengthened ### OSFI / FSRA / federal - I did not verify a separate major OSFI, FSRA, or federal mortgage-rule shock landing specifically in July 2022 that rivaled the BoC move - So the dominant policy story was: - the oversized BoC hike

5) Private / alternative lending -- July 2022 I did not find a clean Ontario-only private-lending data release for July 2022 in this run.

Best month-specific characterization - rising rates and falling transaction volumes likely increased stress for: - borrowers facing renewals or refinancing - highly leveraged borrowers - borrowers no longer qualifying at mainstream lenders - That environment tends to increase interest in: - alternative lenders - private mortgages - bridge / rescue financing - But I do not have a clean July-only Ontario metric to quote directly

6) Notable events -- July 2022

Major headlines - July 13: BoC hikes 100 bps - Housing market slowdown deepens - national sales down again - national average price now below year-ago levels - GTA sales collapse relative to prior year - down 47.4% - Financing shock becomes real - the cost of borrowing is now materially different from early 2022

What defined July 2022 The defining themes were: - aggressive monetary tightening - weakening sales - falling or flattening price momentum - rising inventory - sharp deterioration in affordability and qualification

Fraud / court / lender events - I did not find a single clearly dominant mortgage fraud case, lender collapse, or court ruling that I could confidently verify as a defining July 2022 mortgage headline in this run

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Bottom line for July 2022 - BoC: hiked from 1.50% to 2.50% on July 13 - Mortgage rates: jumped materially; variables moved into the mid-4% zone and fixeds into roughly the high-4% / mid-5% range - Housing market: cooling hard - Canada: average price about $629,971 - GTA: 4,912 sales, average price $1,074,754 - Policy: the defining July event was the 100 bp BoC hike - Alternative lending: likely more relevant at the margin, but no clean July-only Ontario figure verified

Sources - Bank of Canada -- July 13, 2022 decision - CREA July 2022 release title / month-specific market reporting - TRREB market-watch references / July 2022 figures surfaced in search results - Secondary coverage summarizing July 2022 GTA data: - - - Rate references - - - ## Caveats - You asked for July 2022 only, so I kept this month-specific. - I could verify the BoC July 13 hike strongly from the primary source. - I relied on month-specific market reporting and search-result evidence for national and GTA figures; I did not directly extract a clean primary Ontario-wide dataset in this run. - I also did not find a single authoritative national “average 5-year fixed / average variable” series for July 2022 only, so the mortgage-rate section remains an approximate market snapshot rather than a precise official average.