May 2022 -- Canadian Mortgage & Housing Market Snapshot
1) Bank of Canada rate decisions - No Bank of Canada rate announcement occurred in May 2022. - The policy rate remained: - 1.00% throughout May 2022 - The most recent decision before May was: - April 13, 2022 -- raised to 1.00% - The next decision after May was: - June 1, 2022 -- raised to 1.50% - So for May 2022 specifically, the effective overnight rate remained 1.00% all month.
2) Mortgage rate snapshot -- May 2022 The broad May 2022 mortgage-rate picture was:
- Prime rate: about 3.20%
- Variable rates:
- generally in the low-3% to mid-3% range
- reflecting the April BoC rate hike
- 5-year fixed:
- generally in the mid-3% to low-4% range
- fixed pricing had repriced significantly higher than in early 2022
- Practical takeaway:
- May 2022 was clearly no longer a “cheap money” environment
- borrowers were now facing materially higher borrowing costs than just a few months earlier
Caveat: I did not find a single authoritative national source giving one exact Canada-wide “average 5-year fixed” and “average variable” for May 2022 only, so these remain approximate market ranges.
3) Housing market data -- May 2022
Canada (national) Month-specific reporting for May 2022 showed continued cooling: - National home sales: down 8.6% month-over-month from April - National average sale price: about $711,316 - up about 3.4% year-over-year - Months of inventory: around 2.5 months - Interpretation: - the housing market was cooling meaningfully - sales continued to fall as rates rose - price growth was slowing sharply compared with earlier pandemic-boom months
GTA / Ontario proxy For TRREB / GTA May 2022: - Sales: 7,283 - Year-over-year sales change: -39.1% - Average selling price: $1,212,806 - up 9.4% year-over-year - New listings: 18,679 - up 0.5% year-over-year - Interpretation: - GTA sales were down sharply from the prior year - prices remained high but the pace of appreciation was moderating - the market was clearly in a cooling phase
Ontario-wide I did not find a clean primary Ontario-wide May 2022 housing dataset in this run that I’m comfortable quoting directly. The strongest Ontario-specific evidence here remains TRREB / GTA.
4) Regulatory / policy news -- May 2022 I did not verify a major new OSFI, FSRA, or federal mortgage-policy shock landing specifically in May 2022.
Best month-specific characterization - May 2022 was largely a digesting-the-April-tightening month - The relevant policy backdrop remained: - BoC at 1.00% - QT underway - April federal-budget housing measures in the background - No fresh May-only mortgage-rule change clearly stood out in this pass ## 5) Private / alternative lending -- May 2022 I did not find a clean Ontario-only private-lending data release for May 2022 in this run.
Best month-specific characterization - rising rates and cooling sales likely increased pressure on: - highly leveraged borrowers - borrowers failing qualification under higher rates - borrowers using non-prime channels - But I do not have a clean May-only Ontario metric to quote directly - The dominant market story was: - rapid mainstream cooling under higher borrowing costs
6) Notable events -- May 2022
Major headlines - No BoC move in May - but the April rate shock continued to work through the market - Housing market cools further - national sales down again month-over-month - GTA sales down sharply year-over-year - Prices still high, but momentum slowing - national average about $711,316 - GTA average about $1.213 million - Market psychology changes - rising rates were now clearly influencing buyer behavior
What defined May 2022 The defining themes were: - higher borrowing costs - weaker sales - slower price growth - tighter financial conditions - continued adjustment after the start of the hiking cycle ### Fraud / court / lender events - I did not find a single clearly dominant mortgage fraud case, lender collapse, or court ruling that I could confidently verify as a defining May 2022 mortgage headline in this run
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