Ontario Mortgage Rates: January 2022

January 2022 -- Canadian Mortgage & Housing Market Snapshot

1) Bank of Canada rate decisions - Date: January 26, 2022 - Decision: No change - Overnight rate: 0.25% - Rationale: The Bank said the economy had considerable momentum and inflation was well above target, but it held rates unchanged while signaling that economic slack had been absorbed and that the economy no longer required exceptionally low rates. In other words, January 2022 was the month the BoC strongly prepared markets for imminent tightening. - Important context: This was a major communications month because the BoC did not hike yet, but it clearly telegraphed that hikes were coming soon.

2) Mortgage rate snapshot -- January 2022 The broad January 2022 mortgage-rate picture was:

• Prime rate: about 2.45%
• Variable rates:
• generally still in the low-2% range
• because the BoC had not yet raised the overnight rate
• 5-year fixed:
• generally in the mid-2% to upper-2% range
• fixed rates were already climbing as bond yields and tightening expectations rose
• Practical takeaway:
• January 2022 was a transition point:
• variable rates were still very low
• fixed rates were moving meaningfully higher in anticipation of BoC hikes

Caveat: I did not find a single authoritative national source giving one exact Canada-wide “average 5-year fixed” and “average variable” for January 2022 only, so these remain approximate market ranges.

Canada (national) Month-specific reporting for January 2022 showed the market still extremely hot: - National home sales: up 1.0% month-over-month from December 2021 - National average sale price: about $748,450 - up about 21.0% year-over-year - Months of inventory: around 1.6 months - Interpretation: - the year began with severe inventory shortages - prices remained extremely elevated - demand was still strong even with tightening expectations building

GTA / Ontario proxy For TRREB / GTA January 2022: - Sales: 5,636 - Year-over-year sales change: -18.2% - Average selling price: $1,242,793 - up 28.6% year-over-year - New listings: 9,097 - up 8.9% year-over-year - Interpretation: - GTA sales were below January 2021 - but the price level jumped dramatically, with the average price moving above $1.24 million - demand remained strong relative to available supply

Ontario-wide I did not find a clean primary Ontario-wide January 2022 housing dataset in this run that I’m comfortable quoting directly. The strongest Ontario-specific evidence here remains TRREB / GTA.

4) Regulatory / policy news -- January 2022 The most important policy development in January 2022 was BoC forward guidance, not a new mortgage rule.

Key policy signal - On January 26, 2022, the BoC indicated that the economy no longer needed extraordinary monetary support - This was widely interpreted as a clear signal that rate hikes were imminent

OSFI / FSRA / federal - I did not verify a major new OSFI, FSRA, or federal mortgage-policy shock landing specifically in January 2022 - So the key January policy story was: - not a new mortgage-rule change - but a major monetary-policy turning point in guidance

5) Private / alternative lending -- January 2022 I did not find a clean Ontario-only private-lending data release for January 2022 in this run.

Best month-specific characterization - alternative / private lending remained relevant for borrowers constrained by: - affordability - stress-test qualification - non-standard income - With prices accelerating sharply, some borrowers likely faced even greater pressure to look beyond prime channels - But I do not have a clean January-only Ontario metric to quantify that directly

6) Notable events -- January 2022

Major headlines - January 26: BoC holds at 0.25% but strongly signals coming rate hikes - National average home price rises to roughly $748,450 - GTA average price rises above $1.24 million - Inventory remains extremely low - one of the defining market pressures of the month

What defined January 2022 The defining themes were: - very high prices - severe supply shortages - market still running hot - fixed rates rising - BoC guidance turning decisively toward tightening

Fraud / court / lender events - I did not find a single clearly dominant mortgage fraud case, lender collapse, or court ruling that I could confidently verify as a defining January 2022 mortgage headline in this run ---

Bottom line for January 2022 - BoC: held at 0.25% on January 26, but strongly signaled the start of a tightening cycle - Mortgage rates: variable rates remained low, while fixed rates were clearly moving up - Housing market: still extremely tight and expensive - Canada: average price about $748,450 - GTA: 5,636 sales, average price $1,242,793 - Policy: key development was the BoC’s hawkish turn in guidance - Alternative lending: still relevant, but no clean January-only Ontario figure verified

Sources - Bank of Canada -- January 26, 2022 decision - CREA January 2022 release title / month-specific market reporting - TRREB market-watch references / January 2022 figures surfaced in search results - Secondary coverage summarizing January 2022 GTA data: - - - Rate references - - -

Caveats - You asked for January 2022 only, so I kept this month-specific. - I could verify the BoC January 26 hold + hawkish guidance strongly from the primary source. - I relied on month-specific market reporting and search-result evidence for national and GTA figures; I did not directly extract a clean primary Ontario-wide dataset in this run. - I also did not find a single authoritative national “average 5-year fixed / average variable” series for January 2022 only, so the mortgage-rate section remains an approximate market snapshot rather than a precise official average.