Ontario Mortgage Rates: December 2021

December 2021 -- Canadian Mortgage & Housing Market Snapshot

1) Bank of Canada rate decisions - Date: December 8, 2021 - Decision: No change - Overnight rate: 0.25% - Rationale: The Bank said the Canadian economy continued to recover and inflation was elevated, but uncertainty around the Omicron wave and continuing supply bottlenecks remained important risks. It kept the policy rate at the effective lower bound of 0.25% and maintained its forward guidance, while continuing in the reinvestment phase after ending QE purchases in October. - Important context: December 2021 was still a hold month, but the market was increasingly focused on the likely arrival of rate hikes in 2022.

2) Mortgage rate snapshot -- December 2021 The broad December 2021 mortgage-rate picture was:

• Prime rate: about 2.45%
• Variable rates:
• generally still in the low-2% range
• remained appealing because the BoC had not yet begun hiking
• 5-year fixed:
• generally in the low-2% to mid-2% range
• rising inflation expectations and policy-tightening expectations were becoming more relevant to fixed-rate pricing
• Practical takeaway:
• December 2021 still offered historically low borrowing costs
• but market psychology had started shifting toward a coming tightening cycle

Caveat: I did not find a single authoritative national source giving one exact Canada-wide “average 5-year fixed” and “average variable” for December 2021 only, so these remain approximate market ranges.

Canada (national) Month-specific reporting for December 2021 showed: - National home sales: up 3.2% month-over-month from November - Year-over-year sales: still high versus December 2020 - National average sale price: about $713,500 - up about 17.7% year-over-year - Months of inventory: around 1.6 months - Interpretation: - the year ended with extremely tight national conditions - sales remained strong and inventory was exceptionally low

GTA / Ontario proxy For TRREB / GTA December 2021: - Sales: 5,174 - Year-over-year sales change: -27.7% - Average selling price: $1,157,849 - up 24.2% year-over-year - New listings: 4,003 - down 11.9% year-over-year - Interpretation: - GTA sales were lower than the prior year’s unusually strong December - but prices surged sharply higher - very low listings continued to support price inflation

Ontario-wide I did not find a clean primary Ontario-wide December 2021 housing dataset in this run that I’m comfortable quoting directly. The strongest Ontario-specific evidence here remains TRREB / GTA.

4) Regulatory / policy news -- December 2021 I did not verify a major new OSFI, FSRA, or federal mortgage-policy shock landing specifically in December 2021.

Best month-specific characterization - December 2021 was largely a continuation month - The relevant policy backdrop remained: - BoC at 0.25% - post-QE reinvestment phase - stress-test changes already in effect - growing inflation and tightening expectations - No fresh December-only mortgage-rule change clearly stood out in this pass ## 5) Private / alternative lending -- December 2021 I did not find a clean Ontario-only private-lending data release for December 2021 in this run.

Best month-specific characterization - private / alternative lenders remained relevant for: - borrowers constrained by affordability - stress-test qualification - self-employment / non-standard income issues - But I do not have a clean December-only Ontario metric to quote - The dominant December story remained: - low inventory - very high prices - and anticipation of tighter rates ahead

Major headlines - December 8: BoC holds at 0.25% - National housing market ends 2021 extremely tight - inventory falls to very low levels - GTA prices stay above $1.15 million - Policy narrative shifts - not because rates changed in December, but because the market increasingly expected a 2022 tightening cycle

Fraud / court / lender events - I did not find a single clearly dominant mortgage fraud case, lender collapse, or court ruling that I could confidently verify as a defining December 2021 mortgage headline in this run ---

Bottom line for December 2021 - BoC: held at 0.25% on December 8 - Mortgage rates: remained low, but future tightening expectations were increasingly important - Housing market: ended the year extremely tight and expensive - Canada: average price about $713,500 - GTA: 5,174 sales, average price $1,157,849 - Policy: no major new December-only mortgage-policy shock verified - Alternative lending: still relevant at the margin, but not the defining story of the month

Caveats - You asked for December 2021 only, so I kept this month-specific. - I could verify the BoC December 8 hold strongly from the primary source. - I relied on month-specific market reporting and search-result evidence for national and GTA figures; I did not directly extract a clean primary Ontario-wide dataset in this run. - I also did not** find a single authoritative national “average 5-year fixed / average variable” series for December 2021 only, so the mortgage-rate section remains an approximate market snapshot rather than a precise official average.