Ontario Mortgage Rates: April 2021

April 2021 -- Canadian Mortgage & Housing Market Snapshot

1) Bank of Canada rate decisions - Date: April 21, 2021 - Decision: No change - Overnight rate: 0.25% - Rationale: The Bank said the recovery was proceeding faster than expected and upgraded its economic outlook, but it still held the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of 0.25%. It also reduced the pace of QE from at least $4 billion/week to $3 billion/week, reflecting improved conditions. - Important context: This was one of the most important policy moments of early 2021 because the BoC signaled confidence in the recovery while still keeping the policy rate unchanged.

2) Mortgage rate snapshot -- April 2021 The broad April 2021 mortgage-rate picture was:

• Prime rate: about 2.45%
• Variable rates:
• generally still in the low-2% range
• supported by the unchanged BoC overnight rate
• 5-year fixed:
• generally in the low-2% to mid-2% range
• higher than the absolute trough seen earlier, as bond yields had already pushed fixed pricing upward from the pandemic lows
• Practical takeaway:
• April 2021 still offered historically low mortgage rates
• but borrowers were increasingly seeing a split between:
• stable variable pricing
• and fixed rates that had already risen off the bottom

Caveat: I did not find a single authoritative national source giving an exact Canada-wide “average 5-year fixed” and “average variable” for April 2021 only, so these remain approximate market ranges.

3) Housing market data -- April 2021

Canada (national) Month-specific reporting for April 2021 showed: - National home sales: down 12.5% month-over-month from March - But still up about 256.1% year-over-year - because April 2020 was the lockdown trough - National average sale price: about $696,000 - up roughly 41.9% year-over-year - Months of inventory: around 2.1 months - Interpretation: - activity cooled from the March peak - but the market remained historically tight and elevated

GTA / Ontario proxy For TRREB / GTA April 2021: - Sales: 13,663 - Year-over-year sales change: +362.1% - this huge number reflects comparison to the April 2020 lockdown collapse - Average selling price: $1,090,992 - up 33.0% year-over-year - New listings: 18,980 - up 152.1% year-over-year - Interpretation: - the year-over-year comparisons were distorted by April 2020’s base effect - even so, April 2021 still showed an extremely hot GTA market with prices above $1.09 million

Ontario-wide I did not find a clean primary Ontario-wide April 2021 housing dataset in this run that I’m comfortable quoting directly. The strongest Ontario-specific evidence here remains TRREB / GTA.

Bank of Canada / QE - April 21, 2021 - BoC held at 0.25% - cut QE purchases from $4B/week to $3B/week - this was the key monetary-policy development of the month ### Federal housing policy - The 2021 federal budget was tabled on April 19, 2021 - Housing/mortgage-relevant measures included: - a proposed 1% tax on vacant or underused residential property owned by non-resident, non-Canadians - support for housing affordability / supply initiatives - This was one of the bigger housing-policy headlines in April 2021

OSFI / FSRA - I did not verify a major April 2021-only OSFI or FSRA mortgage-policy shock in this run that rivaled the BoC and federal-budget headlines

5) Private / alternative lending -- April 2021 I did not find a clean Ontario-only private-lending data release for April 2021 in this run.

Best month-specific characterization - private / alternative lenders remained relevant as affordability pressures worsened and some borrowers were pushed outside prime qualification - however, the dominant April 2021 narrative was still: - mainstream market overheating - rising prices - policy concern over affordability - I do not have a clean April-only Ontario private-lending metric to quote

Major headlines - April 21: BoC holds at 0.25% but reduces QE - Federal budget (April 19): housing affordability and foreign-owner tax measures become key discussion points - Housing market remains extremely hot - national average price near $696,000 - GTA average price above $1.09 million - Sales cool off from March peak, but remain historically elevated - this was the first sign of some normalization from the absolute frenzy of March

Fraud / court / lender events - I did not find a single clearly dominant mortgage fraud case, lender collapse, or court ruling that I could confidently verify as a defining April 2021 mortgage headline in this run

Bottom line for April 2021 - BoC: held at 0.25% on April 21, while cutting QE pace - Mortgage rates: still very low; variables remained in the low-2% range, while fixeds were somewhat higher than the trough - Housing market: still extremely hot, despite cooling from March - Canada: average price about $696,000 - GTA: 13,663 sales, average price $1,090,992 - Policy: key headlines were BoC QE tapering and the April 19 federal budget - Alternative lending: still relevant, but not the defining story of the month

Caveats - You asked for April 2021 only, so I kept this month-specific. - I could verify the BoC April 21 hold + QE reduction strongly from the primary source. - I relied on month-specific market reporting and search-result evidence for national and GTA housing figures; I did not directly extract a clean primary Ontario-wide dataset in this run. - April 2021 year-over-year sales comparisons are heavily distorted by the April 2020 lockdown trough, so those percentages need to be interpreted carefully. - I also did not** find a single authoritative national “average 5-year fixed / average variable” series for April 2021 only, so the mortgage-rate section remains an approximate market snapshot rather than a precise official average.