Ontario Mortgage Rates: July 2020

I’m pulling the July 2020 Bank of Canada decision plus CREA/TRREB month data so this stays tightly month-specific. July 2020 -- Canadian Mortgage & Housing Market Snapshot

1) Bank of Canada rate decisions - Date: July 15, 2020 - Decision: No change - Overnight rate: 0.25% - Rationale: The Bank said the economy had begun to rebound as lockdowns eased, but output and employment were still far below pre-pandemic levels. It repeated that 0.25% was the effective lower bound and said rates would stay there for a long time while recovery remained incomplete. - Important context: By July 2020, the BoC was firmly in hold + QE/support mode, not emergency-cut mode.

2) Mortgage rate snapshot -- July 2020 The broad July 2020 mortgage-rate picture was:

• Prime rate: about 2.45%
• Variable rates:
• generally still in the low-2% range
• priced off prime, with discounts depending on lender/channel
• 5-year fixed:
• generally around the low-2% to mid-2% range
• the market was becoming more competitive as bond yields stayed low and lenders pushed pricing lower
• Practical takeaway:
• by July 2020, mortgage rates were deeply stimulative
• fixed rates were becoming especially attractive
• variable rates were still low, but the gap vs fixed had narrowed

Caveat: I did not find a single authoritative national source giving an exact Canada-wide “average 5-year fixed” and “average variable” for July 2020 only, so these remain approximate market ranges.

Canada (national) From CREA’s July 2020 release: - Home sales: 62,355 - the highest monthly sales level on record - Year-over-year sales change: +30.5% - Month-over-month sales change: +26% from June - National average sale price: $571,500 - up 14.3% year-over-year - Sales-to-new-listings ratio: 73.9% - Interpretation: - July 2020 was a record-breaking rebound month - demand had returned faster than new supply

GTA / Ontario proxy For TRREB / GTA July 2020: - Sales: 11,081 - Year-over-year sales change: +29.5% - Month-over-month sales change (seasonally adjusted vs June): +49.5% - Average selling price: $943,710 - up 16.9% year-over-year - New listings: 17,956 - Interpretation: - July was a record month for GTA July sales - prices surged as low rates and pent-up demand collided with limited inventory

Ontario-wide I did not find a clean primary Ontario-wide July 2020 dataset in this run that I’m comfortable quoting directly. The strongest Ontario-specific market signal here remains TRREB / GTA.

July 1, 2020 -- CMHC tightens insured mortgage rules CMHC implemented stricter underwriting for insured mortgages, including: - higher minimum credit score requirements - lower allowable debt-service ratios - restrictions around down payments from non-traditional borrowed sources ### Why it mattered - This was one of the most important mortgage-policy changes of mid-2020 - It tightened access to insured mortgages - Industry reaction at the time suggested it could push some borrowers toward: - Genworth/Canada Guaranty-insured alternatives - uninsured channels - or non-bank/private lenders

OSFI / FSRA - I did not verify a major new OSFI or FSRA mortgage rule announcement that was as defining in July 2020 as the CMHC change - So the main July policy headline was the CMHC rule tightening

Strong month-specific signal - Canadian Mortgage Trends reporting in July 2020 said: - the economic slowdown was hitting alternative lenders hard - private lenders had seen a 26% decline in Ontario mortgage registrations - That is one of the clearest Ontario-relevant month-specific alternative-lending data points I found

Major headlines - July 15: BoC holds at 0.25% - July housing market records - Canada: highest monthly sales ever recorded - GTA: record sales for the month of July - Prices accelerated sharply - national average price up 14.3% YoY - GTA average price up 16.9% YoY - CMHC tightens insured mortgage rules effective July 1 - one of the biggest mortgage-policy headlines of the summer

Notable market theme - July 2020 was the month the housing recovery stopped looking tentative and started looking aggressive - Market conditions shifted toward: - strong buyer competition - low-rate-fuelled demand - insufficient supply

Fraud / court / lender events - I did not find a single clearly dominant mortgage fraud case or court ruling that I could verify confidently enough as a defining July 2020 headline in this run ---

Bottom line for July 2020 - BoC: held at 0.25% on July 15 - Mortgage rates: remained very low, with fixeds generally in the low/mid-2% range and variables in the low-2% range - Housing market: extremely strong rebound - Canada: 62,355 sales, highest monthly total on record - GTA: 11,081 sales, average price $943,710 - Policy: biggest headline was CMHC tightening insured mortgage rules effective July 1 - Alternative lending: still under pressure; Ontario private registrations reportedly down 26%

Sources - Bank of Canada -- July 15, 2020 decision - CREA July 2020 release - TRREB market-watch references / July 2020 figures surfaced in search results - Secondary summaries citing TRREB: - - - Rate references - - - - CMHC rule-change context - - - Alternative/private lending -

Caveats - You asked for July 2020 only, so I kept the answer month-specific. - I could verify the BoC July 15 hold strongly and got strong search-result evidence for CREA/TRREB numbers. - I did not directly extract a primary Ontario-wide July 2020 dataset in this run. - I also did not find a single authoritative national “average 5-year fixed / average variable” series for July 2020 only, so the mortgage-rate section is an approximate market snapshot rather than a precise official average.