Bank of Canada rate decisions 2026: a year of holds at 2.25%

In March 2020, the Bank of Canada cut rates three times in 23 days. In 2026, the opposite has happened: the overnight rate has sat at 2.25% through every single scheduled announcement of the year. As of October 2026, the Bank has held the rate steady since the cut it made on October 29, 2025, a stretch covering seven consecutive decisions. The dramatic swings of 2020 through 2024 have given way to something Ontario borrowers have not experienced in a long time: stability. Fixed and variable mortgage rates have moved only modestly over the same period. Here is the year so far, and what is still ahead.9

2026 So Far: Six Announcements, Six Holds

That is six holds in a row at every scheduled meeting so far in 2026, on top of the hold on December 10, 2025. Counting back to the October 29, 2025 cut, the Bank has now held the rate at 2.25% through seven consecutive decisions, roughly eleven months, with an eighth decision due October 28.1234567

The Bank Rate has stayed at 2.50% and the deposit rate at 2.20% throughout, and RBC's published prime rate was 4.45% as of October 7, 2026.10

Why the Bank Has Kept the Rate on Hold

The Bank's own language has shifted gradually over the year without changing the outcome. Early in 2026, the Bank described the policy rate as appropriate conditional on the economy evolving broadly in line with its outlook.1 By the April and July decisions, the Bank was citing uncertainty from Middle East conflict and US trade policy, alongside a view that inflation would gradually ease toward 2% and that growth was starting to pick up.35 By September, the Bank pointed to a broadening economic recovery, but also flagged increased upside risk to inflation from new US tariffs and Middle East tensions, while saying it was prepared to adjust policy as needed.6

In short, the Bank has spent 2026 balancing a recovering economy against upside risks to inflation from US tariffs and Middle East-related energy prices. That balance is exactly why nothing has moved.

The Full Cycle: 2020 to 2026 in Context

Stepping back to see the complete picture helps put the current hold in perspective. The past six and a half years have taken Ontario borrowers through the most volatile rate environment in modern Canadian history:

A borrower who took a variable-rate mortgage in 2020 has experienced rate swings of nearly 500 basis points. The stress test, mortgage deferrals, the Canadian Mortgage Charter, and the insured cap increase to $1.5 million have all shaped how different borrowers handled these swings, but the underlying experience has been one of extraordinary volatility followed, in 2026, by an unusually long pause.

Where Mortgage Rates Stand Now

With the overnight rate unchanged all year, variable mortgage rates follow each lender's prime rate, which moves with the policy rate. RBC's published prime rate was 4.45% as of October 7, 2026.10

Fixed mortgage rates price off Government of Canada bond yields rather than the overnight rate, so they can still move even during a long hold. Rates vary by lender, term, down payment and qualification; confirm current pricing with a licensed mortgage professional.

What This Means for an Ontario Borrower

The stress test applies to qualification whatever the rate environment.

A borrower must qualify at the greater of the contract rate plus 2% or the regulatory floor of 5.25%.11 The buffer limits how much a borrower can qualify to borrow, even though the actual payment is lower than the qualifying payment.

What's Left in 2026

Two scheduled decisions remain for the year: October 28, 2026, alongside an updated Monetary Policy Report, and December 9, 2026. None of that is decided until the Bank announces it, and the same uncertainty that has shaped every decision this year, US trade policy and Middle East-related risk to inflation, remains the main variable.6

Six holds in a row is not the same as nothing happening. Fixed rates have moved on their own schedule, and the stress test still sets the ceiling on what a borrower can qualify for. What we can do is show you what your mortgage looks like at today's rates, stress-test it against the scenarios that matter for your situation, and help you choose the product that fits your budget. That is the service that matters most in a holding pattern.

The one constant through every year of this rate cycle has been that informed borrowers fare better than passive ones. That was true at 0.25%, it was true at 5.00%, and it remains true eleven months into a hold at 2.25%.